I have been looking at the TrackMyI140 data and trying to calculate an estimated timeline for my case. My PD is October, 2024, without PP.
Looking at the “In Progress” cases from February 2024 up to my PD, I added up to 26,613 cases ahead of me. To get this number, I summed the backlog from February through September, and then added about one-third of October’s.
From what I have observed tracking this for a while, it seems like USCIS is processing about 2,000 cases per month from this specific time period. That includes cases that add PP or that stay as standard processing, for my use, it doesn’t matter. It only matters that they are not before mine. Also, USCIS does not process cases in exact order, but from what I have been tracking lately, it looks there may be some variation and jumps, but in general, it seems they work more intensively in older cases. Also, some older cases may get an update after my PD, so they will not show up in the graph, but most cases stay as “In progress” until they are finally adjudicated
If I divide my 26,613 pending cases by that 2,000 per month processing rate, it puts me at roughly a 12 month wait for a response.
Thank you for reaching out and for using TrackMyI140! It is great to see you diving so deeply into the data.
While your mathematical logic makes sense on paper, calculating an exact timeline is a bit more complex due to how USCIS operates. Your interpretation has a few caveats to keep in mind:
No Strict Chronological Order: First, USCIS does not process cases in a strict “first-in, first-out” or sequential order.
The Premium Processing Skew: The most predictable movement always happens in the latest receipt blocks. This is because Premium Processing (PP) cases are concentrated there, and USCIS is legally bound to a 45-business-day response window for them. For standard cases, processing is largely done on a “best effort” basis rather than a strict timeline.
Higher Overall Volume: USCIS actually processes far more than 2,000 cases per month overall. To give you an idea of the scale, in May alone, USCIS processed approximately 33,000 cases and approved around 11,500.
Because linear math doesn’t account for these jumps and variables, I am currently training a Machine Learning (ML) model using all of these specific conditions and historical shifts to provide a much more accurate estimation.
If you would like, you can email me your specific receipt number. I would be happy to run it through the ML model to see what timeline it outputs for you. Please note that this is still an experimental tool, so I cannot guarantee its exactness, but it will certainly give you a more data-driven estimate!
thank you for the detailed response and for building such a helpful tool. I really appreciate you taking the time to provide this context, and I would love to see what your ML model predicts for my case. I will send you an email with my receipt number shortly.
Regarding your points, I would like to address each of them to better understand together what the right way to do it is. I completely understand that the system is not strictly first-in, first-out. However, from what I have observed in recent approval reports for standard processing, there is still a rough chronological progression for non-premium cases, even if it is not perfect. Most cases approved now under standard processing are from early 2024.
You are absolutely right about the Premium Processing skew in recent blocks. My calculation attempts to account for this by focusing exclusively on the older blocks prior to my October 2024 Priority Date. Because of this, the high volume of premium cases in the latest blocks should not significantly impact the count of the standard processing backlog currently waiting ahead of me.
Finally, I definitely recognize that USCIS processes far more than 2,000 cases per month overall. The 2,000 per month figure I mentioned is not meant to represent total agency throughput. Instead, it is an estimated clearance rate for standard processing cases within the time period I am analyzing.
Thank you again for the insights and for the offer to run my case through your experimental model. I look forward to seeing what the data suggests!
